It’s Groundhog Day again and once more it’s time to use the traditional methods to predict weather.  I ventured out into the cold this morning to get a feel for what the next six weeks will have in store for us.  Being in the Mountain Time zone my environmental queues come a couple of hours later than for my counterparts on the east coast.  Long before the sun comes up, I have the opportunity to see how other marmots are forecasting and when the sun comes up in Colorado, there’s already a major disagreement about how long winter will last.  All it tells me is that the marmot community is fragmented and not organized.  And that forecasts are at best regional.

It sure looks like there’s no shadow this morning.

So how do things look for Colorado?  It was overcast and murky and sleeting and flurrying off and on.  Needles to say, no shadows.  Relying on folk traditions, I will lean towards an early spring.  And because this is a La Niña year, I have a little science to support this prediction.  La Niña tends to push the Jetstream north and creates heavier precipitation along the northern Pacific and Mountain states, leaving the southwest dryer and warmer.  It’s not good for agriculture or skiing or whitewater sports or forest fires, but that’s how things work.  And that’s two votes for an early spring in the west.

As is the norm, Punxsutawney Phil and I don’t often agree with our predictions.  This year Phil called for six more weeks of winter.  It looks like he’s put on a few extra pounds, so he’s probably good to continue hibernating.  I’m digging through my closet to get ready for spring activities.  Spring is coming!

As I sit here in a snow drift, in the middle of a blizzard, I have to wonder why the only thing in the news is a bunch of old guys in Iowa.  The commentator did mention that they generate a lot of hot air, but I don’t believe this to be a weather related event.

Hazardous winter weather. Helmet required.

Punxsutawney Phil already clocked in his prediction as East Coast sunrise comes in earlier than the one in the Rockies and watching his live feed, I noticed the distinct lack of snow on the ground in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.  In stark contrast, Colorado is a solid 24 hours into a blizzard and that will continue for a good chunk of today.

Needless to say, as I stood in the blowing snow, I saw no shadow to indicate a delayed winter.  Six weeks until spring sounds reasonable to me.  Of course don’t forget that this is a strong El Niño year, so even if we have an early warm spring, it will be a wet and stormy one.

One final note to Punxsutawney Phil’s spokesman, please do not ask spectators to take their jackets off in 22 degree weather.  They will all get pneumonia and that just won’t play good on the national news.

Here’s to an early spring – the spring equinox – just like every other year.  Happy winter, everyone.  I’m heading back to my burrow.

Each February 2 I embark on my annual tradition of getting up early and taking a peek out. I try to get that peek while it’s still dark out. It’s got nothing to do with avoiding my shadow. It’s all about psyching myself up for what lies outside. It’s winter out there!

To date I prognosticated seven times and four of the seven times saw fresh snow on the ground. Now I know that my business is winter and I’m looking to make a weather prediction, but consider this – a good prognosticator needs to take some measurements, try a few different spots to see if all the numbers match up. And it’s not getting any warmer out all this time, mind you. And then at the end of the hard scientific measurements you still need to get the traditional shot where you either see your shadow or you don’t. So you’re still standing with your naked toes in cold snow, waiting for the photographer to get the right light and the right angle and the right mood. And all this time your toes are sinking deeper and deeper into the snow and getting colder and colder. And then you see the flash and hear, “Let’s take a couple more to make sure we got it!”

And we do this in the winter, not in blazing hot August. Ever. There’s a lot of psyching up required to get the job done. And a lot of hot herbal teas.

Of course this 2015 is once again a snowy Groundhog Day. That makes three years snow-free and five years with fresh snow on the ground. One would guess the trend predicts how the season will go. In fact, Punxsutawney Phil already went on record with six more weeks of winter. His sunrise is two hours ahead of mine, so he hogs a lot attention by being first to the podium.

Dunkirk Dave and Staten Island Chuck have made their calls already, too. These New York groundhogs are calling for an early spring.

While the snow may be deep, Stormy feels that spring is near.

Now that the sun is coming up in the Rockies, it’s my turn to make a call on the weather. The toes are pretty cold standing in yesterday’s snow and the infinitely long field of white snow sure makes it look like winter will never end, especially since we got 9” of the stuff yesterday, but looking up, I see a low cloud base and while it’s light out, the sun is most definitely behind clouds. No shadow today.

I’m going on record, siding with Dave and Chuck. I’m looking for an early spring and warmer weather to come. And believe you me, that’s hard to say when there’s ice stuck between your toes, but I am a marmot. I know this stuff.